| Sep 06 | |
 |
Should I start Jay Cutler at QB going against Oakland instead of going with Carson Palmer against a tough Baltimore Defense and Bengal receivers dinged up? -- from Diamond |
| In our weekly quarterback rankings for Week 1, we have Palmer rated 9 spots higher than Cutler. First of all, though the Ravens held opponents to just 79.3 rushing yards a game last season (ranking them 2nd best in the league), they did cede 222.3 yards per game in the air along with allowing 27 passing touchdowns. Compare that to last seasons Raider passing defense which allowed just 195.8 yards and 17 touchdowns through the air. Also, though you are correct that the Cincinnati receivers are dinged up, both of their big weapons, Ocho Cinco (or the receiver formerly known as Chad Johnson) and Houshmandzadeh are probable and likely ready to play, while Denver's biggest threat Brandon Marshall will be serving a one game suspension, leaving the starting two spots to rookie Eddie Royal and veteran Darrell Jackson. The beauty of fantasy football is anytihng can happen in any given week, but given these facts, I would go with Palmer over Cutler hands down. | |
| Sep 05 | |
 |
I drafted Steve Smith in the fourth round over Plaxico and am regretting it after last night's game. Did I make the wrong move? -- from Homer |
| If the season comes down to one game, Homer, you definitely made the wrong decision. Fortunately it doesn't. Far too often a player's value is adjusted dramatically based on on single game when in actuality projections are forcasted over an entire schedule and, in accordance to the player's overall history, take into account 10-catch, 133-yard efforts like Burress had last night. While there's a minimal amount of uncertainty in all projections, history should be your guideline and if you suspected Smith was the better bet going in, you should continue to think so. In the end, since they are so closely gapped, Burress may have been the better option but the difference isn't likely enough to make or break your season and you shouldn't put too much thought into it. | |
| Sep 04 | |
|
I have Marques Colston but don't know who should I start in Week 1 over Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery or Donald Driver? Also, is Derek Anderson a safe bet for the first game? -- from Schnitz |
| Those are both nice fallbacks behind your studs, who should both be in every week from here on out. As for Week 1, Cotchery should be Favre's favorite target this year after a great "getting-to-know-you" preseason. He only had a pair of touchdowns last year but reeled in 82 passes, including 28 the last four games, and topped 1,100 yards receiving as well. With a proven passer on the field, he should have a great opportunity to double or triple his touchdown total while 90-100 catches is realistic as well. While Driver has been among the game's most underrated receivers for the last few years, he probably can't hold a candle to Cotchery this year and we'd recommend the Jet. As for Anderson, all signs point to him being 100% for the opener, a tough matchup against Dallas. If you have him, you have to play him but it wouldn't be surprising to see another concussion along the way and we wouldn't bet our house on him staying healthy all year. | |
| Sep 03 | |
|
I am in a keeper league and need to cut a few players. What do you think of B. Engram? Is he worth keeping on my team for later in the year or should I cut him? Also, what do you think of J. Kent of Seattle as a sleeper? -- from Jackson |
| Jackson, Engram was poised for another big year before the shoulder injury. Whether you drop him or not depends basically on how deep your rosters/bench is in this league. If you only carry 3 or 4 guys, it's tough to wait for a guy who won't be available until Week 6 or 7 but if you carry reserves that won't see much time as a rule, why not...he should be the Seahawks primary weapon upon returning. Kent has some nice sleeper potential but was pretty far down the depth chart before the injuries struck the Seattle receiving corps. He's probably not worth a spot heading into the season but if he has a good week or two, throw a spot on him and hope for the best. Perhaps no team in the NFL has seen as much hardship as the Seahawks in regards to their passing game and someone, whether it's Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent or Logan Payne, will need to step up. You want the guy that does but it's pretty much impossible to say who that will be, although our money is on Taylor to be the main factor in Seattle this year. | |
| Sep 02 | |
|
How would you rank these QBs- Warner, Campbell, Ryan, Rodgers, Pennington and Schaub? Are they all options as a No 2? I need a backup. -- from Chuck Noll |
| It's nice to see you're spending your retirement playing fantasy football, coach! Considering the environment he's working in and the amount of time he's spent backing up Brett Favre, Rodgers has to be the best of that bunch heading into the season. Warner is a nice short-term option but his health is always a question mark and Matt Leinart could still get a crack at the starting job at some point even if Warner doesn't get hurt. He's a good week-to-week play, however. Campbell is working with a West Coast offense now and that should translate into upgraded production in the passing game but they still don't have many weapons and it may take a year to adapt. Schaub should get plenty of attempts as the starter and is a sleeper to put up big numbers but has had trouble staying healthy and any inkling of trouble could throw Sage Rosenfels into a full-time starting gig. Pennington has always been an efficient, reliable signal-caller but doesn't have the arm to rack up big numbers on most days and Ryan will have more downs than ups as a rookie slinger. Given these factors, I think Rodgers is clearly the best option followed by Schaub, Warner, Campbell, Pennington and, lastly, Ryan. | |
| Sep 01 | |
|
Is CIN's Chris Perry a good choice for RB2, behind LT? -- from 1stdown |
| Although he's disappointed thus far in his career, there's a good deal of intrigue surrounding Perry following Rudi Johnson's release. As we said the other day, he has a lot of talent and could excel in every facet of the game, as evidenced by his career average and 51 receptions two years ago, if he can only stay healthy. While Kenny Watson has the better history, it's apparent the Bengals would like their former first round pick to start proving his worth and we expect him to get every opportunity to take over the full-time role. Considering he's never done what the fantasy world is expecting him to do, it may be a stretch to open the season with him as your No 2 and you may want a safer option for Week 1 until you see a return but there's little doubt that he could end up in the role sooner than later. Be patient; he could be among the year's best bargains. | |
| Aug 31 | |
|
I'm a huge Cowboys fan and think they're going to win the Super Bowl. I also want to draft all their guys, do you think that's smart? -- from Da BoyS! |
| Considering Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Nick Folk and Jason Witten are all elite players at their respective positions, there are certainly worse teams to pilage on draft day. Your league-mates will wish you were a Bears fan. The argument has always been to spread out your players so as to maximize your point potential every week. If Barber is having a huge day, odds are Romo and the receivers aren't going to bring home stellar numbers, and conversely. However, players of this caliber should all end up in the top five or so at their positions and having the group as a whole would go a long way towards putting up a large amount of points on the season. The biggest downfalls are you are essentially punting your bye week, Week 10, while also risking a sluggish point total when the Cowboys offense has a slow week any other time. Logic sides with the theory of avoiding multiple players from a single team but the case is, for the most part, overstated and this approach, in this situation, wouldn't leave you behind the pack. While tabbing Barber, Witten and Folk is feasible, getting both Romo and Owens will be very tough as they have been both going in the second round. With so much emphasis on winning, sometimes we miss out on the fun and taking an offshoot approach on draft day can make the challenge more rewarding than an actual Championship. Good luck!! | |
| Aug 30 | |
|
With Rudi Johnson being cut and Ronnie Brown losing his starting job, who do you have more trust in, Chris Perry or Ricky Williams? I mean, the Dolphins are terrible and Perry can't stay healthy. Thanks. -- from Leroy Brown |
| Johnson's rapid fall from being an elite back is just another reminder of how volatile life in the NFL can be but there's no doubt his release has given new life to Perry in Cincinnati. That life could be short if, as you mention, the former first rounder is unable to stay healthy again. If/when healthy, Perry is a talented runner who can help in nearly every facet of the game. He'll have to prove himself early in the campaign if he hopes to hold off Kenny Waston and DeDe Dorsey but if he does, he could be among the year's best surprises. Williams is in a bit of a different situation with Brown still in the shadows. Even though he's getting the starting nod, Brown will get a good deal of carries and it wouldn't be surprising to see him get the bulk of the work over the course of the season. Williams may be the safer bet between the two and is pricier on draft day but Perry's situation, aside from another injury to Brown, could provide more upside. They're both nice sleepers but both could disappoint in regards to expectations just as easily. | |
| Aug 29 | |
|
I am in a fantasy football league. This is a point per reception league. Who would you take in this format Clinton Portis or Ryan Grant? -- from rob |
| Rob, in non-PPR formats, using our cheatsheets, Portis has a noticeable advantage over Grant but when considering receptions, the gap does narrow considerably as the two become part of a large pool of backs, along with Frank Gore, Larry Johnson and Marshawn Lynch, that could all be considered as options in the latter first round. Portis, however, has history on his side and is moving into a West Coast offense under new coach Jim Zorn. Aside from his injury-laden 2006 season, he has topped 1,200 yards rushing every year of his career, reached double-digits in scoring four times and is coming off a career-best 47 receptions that netted 389 yards last season. While Grant has nice upside, he has little history to speak of and, with the Packers looking to get Brandon Jackson into the mix more often, matching last year's production over 16 games seems unlikely. If you're looking at Portis late in the first, he's a tremendous value but if you have a higher pick, in the middle of the round, Grant would be a stretch and you'd have to go with the veteran or another option altogether. | |
| Aug 28 | |
|
Obviously, Brady, Manning and Romo are 1, 2 and 3 but who do you like between Drew Brees, Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger? -- from Jimmy T. |
| While Brady and Manning are locked into the first two spots, Romo isn't the sure bet in the third spot, although that's where he's been going in most drafts. Brees has three great weapons in Coltson, Shockey and Bush along with bustout candidate Robert Meachem and is a sleeper to lead the league in passing yards. Roethlisberger could have his best year yet if the Steelers plan to open up the passing attack comes to fruition and Palmer is no slouch either, topping 4,000 yards and 25 touchdown passes each of the last two years. In other words, there are at least four frontline caliber QBs lined up behind the first two and the best route may be to let a couple go before grabbing one of the others at a slightly cheaper price. It drops off significantly after that, however, with Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb, so it may be best to grab a top-six slinger while Roethlisberger in the fourth should be a great catch. | |
| Aug 27 | |
|
I'm not sure how to deal with the bye weeks. Is it better to spread them out or how about getting guys with similar bye weeks and kind of punting a week? Thanks. -- from Big Country |
| I have actually used the second strategy you listed, essentially focusing on having as few different bye weeks as possible for your bigger players so as to lessen the impact of the off weeks the rest of the way. While it virtually ensures you will play short-handed and lose that week, your best players will be available the rest of the year while others are scrambling for replacements. While it has its benefits, I don't, however, believe that is the best way to go. The biggest downside to mainstreaming your byes is the limited options you'll have when making choices in the draft. And we all know that limiting options in any draft is not how to find optimal value along the way. Rather, the best route is usually to spread them out so as to allow for more flexibility in both drafting and in-season roster movement. Obviously, if your starting QB has a bye in Week 7, you won't want to draft a backup with the same off week but don't over-analyze and pass up a great value just to organize your byes. There will be plenty of time to adjust if you need to and you can end up limiting yourself just as you would were you to target all the same bye weeks. Keep an open mind and make it up as you go along while keeping a mental note and that should be good enough to cover the issue. | |
| Aug 26 | |
|
What is your optimum sleeper team? -- from Stretching |
| Hmmmm....interesting question but fun to tackle. There are obviously a few at each position but to be quick and direct, this is who we'd draft as the ultimate sleeper team (excluding rookies, who are NEVER sleepers). QB- Aaron Rodgers, RB- Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, WR- Jerricho Cotchery, Calvin Johnson, TE- Vernon Davis, Def- Green Bay, K- Josh Brown. Williams may be the riskiest of the bunch in regards to health/playing time but we're confident if you drafted this team you'd at least make a run at the playoffs with good upside. | |
| Aug 25 | |
|
A friend of mine likes to fill every position before taking any backups, meaning he usually takes a defense and kicker before anyone else. I'm thinking of taking the same route after watching him win last year but want to know what you think. Thanks. -- from J-E-T-S! |
| If he won a championship using that method last year I'm guessing his early round choices (Tom Brady, LT, Randy Moss?) had a significantly bigger impact than his overvalued picks did and he was able to avoid injuries with his premium picks as well. While he may have had the best defense and kicker on the board, there's a couple rules of thumb when regarding these positions. First, the projectable difference between the top kicker and tenth-rated kicker is not only minimal but probably the most inconsistent science in fantasy sports. Throw a dozen names in a hat and any one of them could lead the league in scoring while any of them could also finish 12th among the group. Who predicted Robbie Gould would rack up 143 points in 2006 and who expected Adam Vinatieri to finish behind Rob Bironas, Jason Hanson and Phil Dawson last season? While the elite defenses can be more predictable, the same holds true for the bulk of the field. There's nothing wrong with cycling through the positions one at a time early in the draft, assuming you're not overpaying to keep with the strategy, but once your skill positions are filled, excluding tight end, it's best to find optimal value where you can get it in the form of backups rather and use your latter round picks on a defense and kicker, preferably the last two rounds of any draft. Rarely has a championship season been built on these positions and you shouldn't take that approach now either. | |
| Aug 24 | |
|
Whose stock is rising/falling dramatically this preseason? -- from gunner |
| As always, this preseason has included a number of players who have performed better or worse than expected while seeing their stock adjust accordingly. While rookies are always an uncertainty, Tim Hightower has been steadily narrowing the gap between him and Edge and it wouldn't be surprising to see Hightower get at least a third of the carries, including most of the goal-line opportunities this season. Deuce McAllister came into camp as a huge uncertainty but has done everything he can so far to prove he's on the way back. With his injury history, it wouldn't be wise to throw down more than a late-round choice but it could be money well spent if he can stay on the field. The healthier he is means fewer carries for Pierre Thomas, who was a nice sleeper heading into August. Matt Leinart was the starter going in but has an extremely thin hold on the starting job if he hasn't lost it already and he may not be draftable in most formats, even those with two QBs, at this time. Back to the Saints, among the most impressive potential bustout candidates has been Robert Meacham, who should start early on if not out of the gate and has displayed speed, strength and separation the Saints thought they were getting when they selected him in the first round last year. He looks like a must in all leagues. Ricky Williams is running with a purpose in Miami and may have pushed Ronnie Brown into the No 2 spot for good. While there should still be a split in carries, Brown has nowhere near the value he had a few weeks ago and will likely slip into the middle rounds in our last mock coming soon. There are many more who have seen shifts in value and this next week will determine much but it's just a reminder of how volatile life in the NFL is and how quickly the tide can turn in the fantasy world. | |
| Aug 23 | |
|
Is there any reason not to take LT with the first pick? Westbrook? Peterson? Brady? -- from Schnitz |
| The short answer is no, there's no reason to not take him first. In nearly every point format, he has a clear advantage over the No 2 guy, usually Peterson, and his durability puts him over the top by a wide margin. Peterson could manage to outpoint him this year but doesn't have enough history to warrant for the top spot while Westbrook has the history but has never outpointed LT in any season. Brady is an intriguing option due to his own positional varience but unless you play in a league that rewards 6 points per touchdown pass, he's nowhere close to LT while his teammate Randy Moss is actually ranked higher in the majority of formats. Add to that the concerns surrounding Brady's shoulder and it just isn't logical to burn the first pick on him. It's good to stay liquid and find value where it can be had in any draft but when dealing with the first overall pick, don't get cute....just stay logical and take the best player on the board in LT. | |
| Aug 22 | |
|
I am in a 16-team keeper league only 2RB and 2WR and no flex. I have Steven Jackson/Larry Johnson/Braylan Edwards and have been offered T.O for my 4th rounder this year and 4th next year, is it worth it? -- from Daniel |
| Daniel, that's a great keeper corps for a league that size. Jackson is easily a top-five option in any format while Johnson, back to health and running with a purpose, could be among the year's best bargains as a late first round option in most drafts. Although Edwards hasn't matched up to TO in previous campaigns, he's clearly the focus of the Browns passing attack and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rank in the top three among wide receivers this season. Considering you only need four RB/WR types starting each week, the odds are your fourth round pick isn't an intrigal piece of your roster and the reserves you were planning on taking with it can certainly be replaced a round later. And to reel in a player of TO's caliber, this seems like a deal that has to be done. Running out Jackson, Johnson, Edwards and Owens each week should provide a clear path to the playoffs and possibly the championship. Take the offer and good luck this season! | |
| Aug 21 | |
|
I've heard some bad things about Peyton and am thinking of staying away from him. Anyone else you think I should avoid? -- from Mike |
| Reports regarding Manning's condition have varied throughout the last couple weeks and range anywhere from him missing no regular season time to the issue possibly hindering him throughout the campaign. While there's always more to the story than anyone knows, at this point it appears he'll be ready to go and we expect him to be the same old Peyton but he certainly carries some risk. The risk can be offset by knocking him into the second round but if he's staring at you with a pick in the lower half of the frame, it'd still be hard to pass on him. Since it's never good to completely avoid players, there are other players we'd only feel safe taking if they dropped into a more suitable price range. Willis McGahee, Derek Anderson (as mentioned the other day), Reggie Bush and LenDale White all face diminished roles should they fail to perform early in the season while Rudi Johnson already appears to have fallen behind Chris Perry and Kenny Watson. Edgerrin James and Willie Parker could also gradually lose carries over the course of the season, to rookies Tim Hightower and Rashard Mendenhall, respectively. Despite his big fat contract, Bernard Berrian could disappoint while Reggie Brown could also fall short of big expectations in Philly. None of these players, and more, is worth avoiding altogether but letting them fall to you at a discount is recommended. | |
| Aug 20 | |
|
I'm on a 8 team league and have the 2nd pick, I just renewed my membership again with you guys and it's my second year. You guys do give me alot of advice to think about. So with that said, should I grab Peterson with the second pick or I really like Barber, what do you think? And when it comes around again to me I think I'm going to grab Tom Brady if he's still there. I know the norm is usally RB's but I really like Brady this year. Do you think it's ok? -- from slacker |
| Welcome back Slacker. Although an argument could be made for taking Westbrook with the second overall pick and we may regret it in hindsight, the consensus in most formats is Peterson at No 2 and there's really no reason not to take him there. As to your second point, however, I think it's highly unlikely Brady will last until the 15th pick in any format heading into this season. If he is, he's the logical choice. Assuming he isn't, there's really no way to gauge your draft prior to the actual event. With that spot, there are too many variables that can change the direction of the draft and only after analyzing those will you know who to take. Knowing you make another pick almost immediately, if you are facing a dilemma between two players, such as Marques Colston vs Larry Fitzgerald, opt for another position that supplies greater varience and let the team behind you make your decision for you. At your position, it's impossible to predict the draft as far as even the first round but taking the best value at each turn will provide optimal production. | |
| Aug 19 | |
|
My draft is this Thursday night. I'm in a 10-team PPR keeper league. What are your thoughts on Derek Anderson? Stud or flash-in-the-pan? Would you rather end up with him and say, Chris Cooley/Todd Heap/Owen Daniels as your TE or Gonzalez and McNabb/Leinart/Schaub/Cutler as your QB?? Finally......McFadden, K. Smith or Forte??? -- from smalls |
| Nice question, Smalls. To start, it's not fair to lump Cooley in with Heap and Daniels as he's more likely on a par with Gonzalez for overall point production. That said, although Anderson proved capable of putting up solid numbers last year, his 56.5% completion pct and 19 interceptions are significant indicators that a downfall is not only realistic but likely. With Brady Quinn in the shadows, the leash will be short and it's probably best to view Anderson as a QB2 in all formats. As usual, McNabb is the unknown factor among all signal-callers, capable of ranking in the top five if he can stay healthy. That's a big IF however and no matter what price you pay, there's a good chance you'll need to resort to a backup at some point. Cutler is a solid option, despite the horrificly thin receiving corps in Denver, but Leinart and Schaub are extremely risky and possibly the second best quarterback on each of their respective teams. Given these options, I might try to nab McNabb with Cooley/Gonzalez but that's in an extreme vacuum. There's little to not like about McFadden but it's looking like Smith will have every opportunity to be the feature back in Detroit from Week 1. We still have them ranked as you do but we wouldn't be surprised to see Smith as the bigger producer this year. | |
| Aug 18 | |
|
Hi, out of these 3 RBs who would you keep on your team this year- B. Jacobs,L. Maroney or M. Turner. Thanks for your help. -- from tanks |
| Each of these backs is facing a bit of uncertainty in his own way. Jacobs could be a horse and with continued health a near lock to reach double-digits in touchdowns. His health, however, is no guarantee and the presence of talented backups like Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward could put a crimp on his final totals. Maroney gets a lot of hype based on the team he plays on as well as his connection to Marion Barber but we tend to think he's a big overrated. Not only does he exist in an extremely pass-friendly offense but he has yet to prove he can be effective rushing up the middle despite his bulk. Consider, in 14 games last year, he had 835 yards, 260 of which came in Weeks 15 and 16 while averaging just 48 yards the other twelve weeks of action. The arrival of LaMont Jordan won't help the situation either. While both backs are talented in many aspects, neither matches Turner in regards to pure running ability. Although playing on a poor team with a poor line, Turner should take full advantage of the opportunity being given and come through in a breakout campaign. If you can only keep one, Turner is the man and if you can keep two, I'd probably throw Maroney back into the pool. Good Luck Tanks! | |
| Aug 17 | |
|
We had our draft a couple weeks ago and I selected Steven Jackson with the fourth pick of the draft and the guy behind me chose Joseph Addai. He approached me about a trade, even up, and I don't know if I should call him on it. Do you think Jackson's holdout will linger into the season? -- from Steve |
| I liked Jackson in that spot a couple weeks ago and I still like him there. No other sport can compare to football when it comes to holdouts but rarely do they last into the season and I wouldn't suspect the two sides will let that happen here either. As for the two players, Addai has a tremendous amount of talent and plays in an elite offense but spends most of his Sundays sharing the spotlight with Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark. While there's plenty to go around, the glut of weapons does put a crimp on his overall upside. Jackson, however, will not only get a hoard of carries every week but is also an instrumental part of the passing game and could threaten 2,000 total yards if he can avoid the injuries he suffered through last season. You felt comfortable taking him in the draft and I wouldn't let the prolonged holdout change that thought as there's little chance Jackson isn't on the field come Week 1. | |
| Aug 16 | |
|
With the normal sleepers getting hyped on various sites, who are the players that could put up big numbers if given a bigger role, ie- the starters get hurt? -- from Three-peat a comin'! |
| While there are a number of sleepers in general, including those listed in the question on August 4, there are also a number of talented players who won't get snapped up in most drafts but could explode in value should injuries strike on the depth chart above them. Green Bay has two players to keep an eye on in Brandon Jackson and James Jones. Among quarterbacks, Kevin Kolb and Brady Quinn both have the tools to succeed and could put up nice numbers if Donovan McNabb or Derek Anderson is sidelined. Chester Taylor will get some carries behind Adrian Peterson but would be a must should AD go down with the much-anticipated injury while Chris Perry could see a big workload increase even if Rudi Johnson doesn't get hurt in Cincy. Keep tabs on are Lamont Jordan and Jerious Norwood, both clearly the backups but residing in good systems, as well as Antonio Pittman should Steven Jackson's holdout drag into the regular season. Receivers are generally the biggest crapshoot but Roy Hall has tons of upside in Indianapolis and Chansi Stucki has gotten rave reviews in New York. As stated above, most of these players won't get taken in the vast majority of drafts but owner's pain is another's gain and the first to act when that opportunistic injury strikes could find the difference maker needed to launch up the standings. | |
| Aug 15 | |
|
I play in a longtime 16-team full keeper league that has always had Commissioner rule over trades. To my knowledge, no trade has ever been vetoed but there have been a couple shady deals recently that had no business going through. I voiced my concern but was told it wouldn't be changed. Any suggestions? -- from Screwed |
| It's always tough playing in leagues that use Commissioner control over trades unless you can absolutely trust the Commish to be a fair mediator. Since no trade has ever been vetoed, there should have been no reason to expect the recent deals to be and, since you knew the rules when signing up, you don't likely have a leg to stand on this season. On draft day next year, make a proposal to have trades voted on by the league. If that doesn't fly, propose selecting a 3 or 5-man panel to vote on trades. It's still not optimum but it takes the power out of one owner's hands. The only other option is to walk away. While it can be very profitable, we play fantasy sports to have fun and when the rules fail to maintain balance and integrity, it's not fun. There are plenty of other leagues to join and you could even start a new one but don't let the situation ruin the current season for you. | |
| Aug 14 | |
|
I'm in a 10-team keeper league (PPR) and I have to protect five players. My top 4 are Addai, Wayne, Colston and Burress. I have to decide between Bush, Graham and Jamal Lewis as my fifth protected player. We start over from scratch next year. Who do I keep? I'm leaning towards Lewis because he's the safest pick in the most sound situation. But I love Graham, though he has Dunn and Bennett along with him. Bush has disappointed for the most part, but is this his year? -- from FrankieM |
| Addai, Wayne and Colston, who we expect to have a monster year, are certainly your top three options but I'm not sure about keeping a third wide receiver, even of Burress' caliber, when you have three solid point options at running back to choose from. Since you're starting from scratch next year, Lewis is the best of the remaining three and worthy of a keeper spot, giving you a generous 2RB/2WR core to expand on. Bush is being given an opportunity to take over the full-time backfield duties but, as you suggest, there's little proof he will ever become the everydown back the Saints thought they were getting when they selected him. While his talent is better suited for PPR leagues, his overall production may not be enough to warrant a keeper spot and it's probably best to throw him back. That leaves Graham. Although he has more company this year with Warrick Dunn in town, the fifth-year back should rack up 1,300 total yards, double-digit touchdowns and a slew of receptions, conservatively. It's never fun letting go of players of Burress' and Bush's talent levels but with a five-man pool of Addai, Lewis, Wayne, Colston, and Graham, it will be very tough to outpoint you on a week-to-week basis. Good luck! | |
| Aug 13 | |
|
I've noticed that you only have Aaron Rodgers projected for about 3,300 yards and 22 touchdowns. After watching Favre repeatedly rank near the top of both categories for 16 years, don't you think the new starter will crush those projections? -- from Curmudgeon |
| Great question, Curmudgeon. To answer it simply, YES we do believe Rodgers will better those totals as long as he's in the saddle this season. Remember, however, projections are not meant to represent the top, or bottom, of a players potential but rather the most realistic range you'd feel comfortable forecasting. To expand, after last season, it's easy to expect Tom Brady to make a run at 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. In reality , however, the odds of him doing that are minimal as only one player has ever reached 5,000 yards passing and the same holds true for 50 touchdowns, last year by Brady of course. Just as the mentality is that he should continue his inflated success now, many thought Dan Marino would have numerous 5,000 campaigns after 1984 and obviously that never happened. Likewise, no player has ever repeated a 2,000 yard rushing campaign or reached 2,000 yards receiving despite expectations built on 'suggestive history'. Could Adrian Peterson rush for 2,000 yards this year? Sure, but the safe bet is against and the same holds true for Rodgers. As a true diehard Packer fan, it'd be nice to believe he'll be the next Favre, and there are signs he could explode this year, but chasing IFs won't win fantasy titles. Instead, expect him to fulfill our projected totals for him and allow yourself to not overpay on hype and, IF he does turn in a 3,700-25 season, do everything you can to reap the benefits, including trading your No 1 QB for help in other areas, while getting the most out of a well-placed latter-round choice. The possibility always exists of substantially increased production but expecting inflated numbers by an unproven performer, or even a repeat performance that stretches beyond recent success, is only setting yourself up for failure. | |
| Aug 12 | |
|
I've read some articles so far this year saying that Gates is not the top of the class at TE any more. What do you think? Gates or Witten? Or maybe even Winslow? -- from RockRimmon |
| Interesting question and one we were discussing at a recent staff meeting. What began with Tony Gonzalez a decade ago has led to a huge influx of downfield targets at the position and the group as a whole my be the best assemblages of tight end to play at the same time. In the end, the consensus was a healthy Gates is still the guy your hat on but there's little doubt the gap has closed considerably and no one would be surprised to see Winslow or Witten grab top honors, not to mention Gonzalez, who led last year's class in yards. The talent doesn't stop there either; Chris Cooley, Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey and Heath Miller are all more than capable pass-catchers with proven touchdown scoring ability while Oakland's Zach Miller and San Francisco's Vernon Davis appear ready to move into the next tier as well. All things considered, it's nice to get a top-four guy but the price doesn't reflect the varience provided and it may be best to take advantage of the talent and grab a second-tier guy a few rounds later. | |
| Aug 11 | |
|
We are starting a standard (1 QB and no PPR) 10 team league and it is a two player keeper league. I have the #7 pick, who should I target based on how you have seen drafts, I was thinking Gore or Lynch, who else? -- from cman |
| Lynch isn't a bad choice but neither of the two is likely worthy of the seventh pick of a new keeper draft. As we noted a couple days ago, in dynasty leagues that only keep a couple players, it's best to make your choices in a smaller windown than larger dynasty formats. LT, AD, Westbrook, Jackson, Addai, MJD, Barber and Grant are all running backs who should be considered before the two mentioned. Keeping in mind you won't likely be strapped to the same two players every year in this league, Tom Brady and Randy Moss are also possible options when your pick rolls around. In other words, there shouldn't be a need to approach this draft much different than a yearly draft league since you don't have to make any long-term commitments to the vast majority of your players. Think short-term and simply take the best players available when your pick comes around and there will be plenty of new talent to select in next year's draft if you're not happy with your keepers. | |
| Aug 10 | |
|
With Favre out of the picture, I think Aaron Rodgers is among this year's best sleeper quarterbacks and am targeting him in all drafts.....insane or right on? -- from Str8 Shooter |
| St8 Shooter, many a draft have been ruined by 'targeting' certain players only to find them fly off the board just before my pick, leaving me with the likes of John Kitna or Steve McNair over the years. Don't target, just watch the draft and adjust accordingly along the way. As for Rodgers, however, much has been said over the last few weeks regarding his ability but little is actually known. What is known is the Packers are still among the league's most explosive offensive units. They have five front-line receivers for Rodgers to distribute the ball and a top quality backfield to ease the pressure. He makes few mistakes and, according to camp notes, throws the ball as hard if not harder than the legendary slinger whose shoes he'll fill this year has been throwing the last few years. Although the unknowns weigh heavily on all first-year starting quarterbacks, this is not the typical situation and three years on the bench appear to have been the perfect training period for Rodgers to acquaint himself and it looks like he's headed for a monster first year at the helm. If you can get him, he should easily exceed value but don't leave yourself without a chair when the music stops by trying to sneak him in under value; bump him up a round or two to ensure you get your sleeper under wraps. | |
| Aug 09 | |
|
I am in a keeper league that is primarily based around touchdowns. I have Marion Barber, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and T.O that I am thinking of keeping. I know that I will keep Marion Barber, but I am kinda stuck between TO and Marshawn Lynch for my second keeper, because I think that most of the teams in my league will keep 2 RB's. Any thoughts? -- from Petrock |
| I think your logic is sound, Petrock, as I am assuming 'primarily' means no yards and you only keep two players. Barber is definitely your top keeper; he's in for a huge year with Julius Jones out of the picture and could give you 15-17touchdowns as a starting basis. It gets a little trickier after that, however. Assuming you only keep two players, Anderson isn't an option. He's among 9-10quarterbacks who will fight for the spots behind the elites this year and can easily be replaced in the draft without being too aggressive. Keeping Lynch makes sense, he should score double-digit touchdowns this year and is clearly the focus of that offense. Generally, in leagues that have only one or two keepers, I prefer to look only at the immediate future and since the odds of Lynch outscoring Owens in a touchdown-based league are slim, I would usually keep TO. That said, given your first keeper is already a Cowboy, it doesn't make sense to put all your marbles in one basket every week. Edwards could also be kept over Lynch but it should be much easier to find a reliable pair of wideouts in the draft than a dependable scorer in the backfield. Depending on your starting roster composition, you could go with a back in the first round as well to fill the flex but it'll be hard to pass up Edwards if he comes around. Keep an open mind and find value where it falls and you'll be just fine. | |
| Aug 08 | |
|
I play in a keeper league (standard head to head) where we can keep 6 players. I'm set on A Peterson, P Manning, and S Jackson (I like that core). For the final 3 spots I am deciding between Reggie Bush, Jay Cutler, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Plaxico Burress and Kellen Winslow. Any opinions? -- from FrankieL |
| FrankieL, there isn't much question about those first three keepers (assuming Jackson gets suits up before Week 10). You have two good receivers to choose from but with Burress' inconsistency and Houshmandzadeh's role as Carson Palmer's favorite target, the latter is the better keeper option. Considering the number of sleepers at the position every year, it's probably not wise to keep both, so Burress can go back into the draft pool. It's not always a good decision to keep a tight end in these formats but Winslow is not just any tight end and with four front-line starters at other positions, keeping him gives you another elite performer at a position easy to gain varience. In deciding who to keep as your last keeper, I'd lean on your roster composition. If you start two quarterbacks every week, Cutler is probably the way to go; it's important to have quality and depth not only to provide production each week but to better insure against an injury wiping out your playoff hopes. However, if you play only one quarterback, there's no need to burn a keeper slot on a backup and Bush is the better bet. While he has yet to warrant the massive hype, he should be given every opportunity to take over the tailback role and could finally fulfill the inflated expectations. That's a solid team no matter how you arrange your keepers and as long as they avoid injuries, the group should be a contender. | |
| Aug 07 | |
|
I'm in a 12 team head to head yahoo league, but got the 11th pick. I'm thinking I should take two backs, any thoughts on the best bets to target this late? -- from sharkey |
| There are plusses and minuses to every spot and while you won't get a crack at the elite running backs, as we mentioned yesterday, there should be plenty of options at that point in the draft. While it's good to have a general game-plan, getting stuck inside your predraft plan without adjusting to the actual happenings can leave you overpaying at a position while neglecting to take advantage of the best value picks when your slot comes. That said, at that point I would have to seriously consider taking Randy Moss as opposed to the potentially 10th best back in the draft (assuming Tom Brady goes earlier). He has far bigger positional variance than your back options and you can still fill the need for a back on the swing with a player like Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch or Jamal Lewis. If you really want to think outside the box, consider grabbing Peyton Manning on the swing. Taking that route, however, could backfire if running backs dominate the board but even a duo such as Darren McFadden and Lendale White would suffice behind a potentially dominating pair in Moss/Manning. There are more than a few ways to go about utilizing that draft slot but keep an open mind and adjust to the happenings rather than sticking to a firm plan and you'll find more success. Good Luck Sharkey! | |
| Aug 06 | |
|
With Tomlinson the lock No 1 at running back and Peterson pretty much the consensus No 2 who goes after that, Jackson, Westbrook, Johnson??? What pick is the best? -- from John C |
| John, to answer your second question first, unlike other sports, generally I'm a firm believer in getting the best player on the board in fantasy football and in the past I've wanted the first pick overall, and thusly LT. The tide seems to be turning now, however, with a very deep pool of running backs littering the first round. Peterson is probably the best bet at No 2 but Westbrook, Jackson, Joseph Addai and Johnson should all fight for the No 2 spot while there's much more talent after that. Just behind them, Marion Barber could be in for a huge year as long as he can sustain an increase in carries and Clinton Portis could use the new offense to catapult himself back into top-five status. Marshawn Lynch appears headed for 1,500+ yards and double-digit scores and Jamal Lewis, Ryan Grant and Maurice Jones-Drew could join him. In other words, reeling in LT would be nice but any of the names here could be this year's Adrian Peterson and all seem like safe bets to sustain there draft value barring injury. The glut of talent could also mean it's time to steer away from the traditional running back in the first round. Tom Brady has a nice gap over Peyton Manning and Randy Moss has a huge gap over his closest rival, meaning both make logical picks while focusing on a back in the second. | |
| Aug 05 | |
|
Do you see the Patriots passing as much as last year? Are Brady and Moss #1 again at their positions? -- from dizzydrops |
| Dizzydrops, the addition of Randy Moss and Wesley Welker was bound to make the Patriots among the league's most dangerous passing teams but few envisioned the type of production Brady and Co put up, including 4,900 yards and record 50 touchdown passes. The boost wasn't necessarily the result of more passing, the Pats averaged only four more pass attempts per game than they did in '06 and one more than '05, but rather better efficiency. Given their past, there's no reason to expect fewer than 34-35 passes per game from the Patriots again in 2008 but a repeat in numbers seems highly unlikely. Prior to last year, Brady had not completed more than 65% of his passes, thrown 30 touchdowns or posted a quarterback rating above 93 in any of his six full seasons and although we can't expect him to fall back to his pre-Moss/Welker levels, history suggests he should be closer to the mean this season. The same holds true for Moss and his record-setting touchdown total. Dropoff or not, they are both worthy of going in the top ten of any draft and are easily the top choices at their positions but it's never logical to project record-breaking seasons and expectations should be kept in check when considering the forecast. | |
| Aug 04 | |
|
Just wondering what sleepers do you guys have this year? -- from deresohana |
| While it's essential to get fair value out of each pick of your draft, owners who regularily the slot value when getting into the middle-to-late round picks continually find themselves in the hunt for the title when December rolls around. Among quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers could be a tremendous sleeper as long as Favre isn't on the team heading into the regular season. David Garrard and Jason Campbell, using a new West Coast offense, could also take big steps forward. At running back, Michael Turner heads the list after years of seeing his ability in a backup role for the Chargers. Ricky Williams and Pierre Thomas of the Saints are also worthy of a flier in all leagues. Roddy White provided glimpses of a bustout last season and he should be able to maintain the momentum in 2008 while Bryant Johnson, Ted Ginn, Vincent Jackson and Mark Clayton also appear ready to take their production to another level. Keep and eye on Robert Meachem in New Orleans as well. Donald Lee and Vernon Davis could be significant bargains at tight end and among defenses, no one can match the upside of Minnesota, a top-five stalwart from last year prior to the addition of sackmaster Jared Allen. They should easily exceed their modest going rate. Injuries will create far more options and there are certainly a few running backs who will have prominent years who are still under the radar but the players here are already in position to come through. | |
| Aug 03 | |
|
Who do you expect to be the most impactful fantasy rookie this coming year? -- from Justin |
| Justin, although it's never safe to assume someone will have an impact like Adrian Peterson did last year as a rookie, there should be a number of productive first year players this season. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte and Kevin Smith could all start in Week 1 at tailback for their respective teams. Also, although they aren't likely to start, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson should see regular carries in a split role while waiting for a full-time opportunity. Another rookie back to keep an eye on as a sleeper is Ryan Torain in Denver. He's slated to backup Selvin Young but Mike Shannahan will give make a change if need be and the Broncos are gaga over Torain's athletic ability. There are a number of receivers who could make a splash, including Limas Sweed, Devin Thomas, Kelly Malcolm and Andre Caldwell but the pass-catcher to take a chance on this year is New York Jet Dustin Keller, who could become an immediate favorite of whoever lands the starting job behind center. It's difficult to predict who will rise to the top but we expect McFadden, Smith and Stewart to all make a run at 1,000 yard seasons with all of these names serving as legitimate options on draft day. | |
| Aug 02 | |
|
I am in a keeper league and I can only keep three players from last year. I can only keep two from the same position. My dilemma is RB's, I have Larry Johnson KC, Adrian Peterson MN, Laurence Maroney NE. I am not sure if Larry is going to have the year that Maroney is going to have. I know I will be keeping Adrian P; my decision lies between Larry and Maroney. Any insight would help.. Thanks -- from Exzomby |
| That's a good position to be in with those three at running back. Peterson is the easy choice and clearly you're top keeper. Maroney could be a solid option but there are serious questions as to his ability to pound it inside and get he short yards while the addition of Lamont Jordan will only hinder his scoring further. LJ may not be the top back he was a couple years ago but double-digit touchdowns and 1,200+ yards is very attainable. Don't pin your hopes on a potential big year from Maroney but instead rely on proven factors and keep AD and LJ as your core. Good luck this season! | |
| Aug 01 | |
|
Assuming he comes back, where do you think Brett Favre will play this year? Is he draftable regardless of what uniform he puts on? -- from Livin the Dream |
| Welcome to the 2008 season! I guess we should get the ball rolling with the topic that's been hogging the spotlight for the better part of the offseason. At this point in the saga, it's apparent anything can happen in regards to Favre. The Packers have repeatedly said they wouldn't release him outright or trade him to someone within their own division and Favre apparently doesn't wish to play for anyone else, although the Jets, Bucs and Redskins have all had some interest. The point is moot, however, should Favre decide to take the Packers recently proposed "Marketing" deal. It's looking like he will never be a Packer again and the longer the ordeal drags out the better the odds of him landing in Minnesota or Chicago but it is impossible to know how the pieces will play out in the next week. Regardless of where he lands, he shouldn't be considered a No 1 quarterback heading into the regular season but despite the lack of weapons he's grown accustomed to in Green Bay, should he suit up for the Vikings or Bears, Favre could easily earn that status early in the campaign. Target him in the late rounds of all drafts and hope for the best, which could make him among the year's biggest bargains, but be prepared to cut ties as soon as his return goes south. | |
|
